Tuesday, December 12, 2006

Gil Meche

$55 million. That is what the Kansas City Royals are going to be paying thier new "ace" Gil Meche starting in 2007. Currently, Royals GM Dayton Moore is being looked at in the same light as some rappers you see on MTV Cribs who like to show off their gold leafed ceilings and shark tanks. In other words, fiscally irresponsible. I don't agree, and here's why:

1) Gil Meche is 28 years old and has numbers eerily similar to Jason Schmidt's when he was in Pittsburgh (Meche 2006: 4.48 era, 11-8 record, 156K, 56BB / Schmidt 1998* : 4.07 era, 11-14 record, 158 K, 71BB) . You know, before he went to San Francisco and became the best pitcher in the National League. Not saying Meche will do the same, but pitchers start to hit their peaks in their late 20s early 30s.
*1998 was Schmidts's best professional season prior to playing for the San Francisco Giants

2) The Royals HAVE to spend money to compete. Signing Meche to a lot of money is a risk but they weren't going to get him otherwise, and let it be known, this is the guy Moore targeted in free agency. The Cubs, Dodgers, Yanks and Bo-Sox have the money to outbid, so teams like the Royals have to pay to get young talent to come to KC.

3) If the Meche signing was the only move the Royals would have made, then it would have looked foolish. Look more closely, and you'll see that they traded underachieving closer Ambiorix Burgos (12 blown saves in 30 opportunities, yikes!) for Brian Bannister (26 years old) who was 2-1 with a 4.26 ERA in eight appearances for the Mets last year. Next, Moore picked up Joakim Soria (22 years old) in the Rule 5 draft for $50,000. How does Soria pay them back? He goes out and pitches a perfect game in the Mexican League on Sunday. Not a bad start. Dewon Brazelton, a former first round pick and 6-0 standout on the 2000 USA team, was invited to spring training. Brazelton was a disappointment with the Devil Rays and Padres but has shown some talent and offers the Royals a possible option for the bullpen or at least a project at the AA and AAA levels. The Royals signed John Bale, a left handed arm that gives them some flexibility in the bullpen, something the Royals really needed with Jeremy Affeldt gone (a good Dayton Moore move when you look at Ryan Shealy's production last year). They also signed Octavio Dotel to a one-year $5 million deal giving them an established closer at a nice price. They are also still in the running for Jeff Suppan (a move that kind of scares me).

4) The future doesn't look as gloomy as it did a few years ago. Look at the minor leagues. Alex Gordon, Billy Butler and Chris Lubanski have proved that their time is very soon. These are three of the best hitting prospects I can ever remember being in the Royals system. Add them to guys like Mark Teahan, Ryan Shealy and David DeJesus, and you have some good young bats to work with. One of the real hidden gems in this organization could be single-A shortstop Jeffrey Bianchi. This kid is hitting .429, walks and has shown a good glove. He could displace Berrora sooner than later. Throw in Zack Greinke, Tyler Lumsden, Luke Hochevar and Billy Buckner and you have some definite young arms that already have some big upside. The Royals also have the #2 pick in the 2007 draft and could pick either Matt Wieters, a switch hitting catcher with power, who was also a very good closer at Georgia Tech, or one of the several good pitching prospects in this year's draft (my vote is for Wieters).

5) While the AL central looks daunting, look at the turnarounds the teams in this very division have been part of. The Twins were going to be contracteda few years ago, now they are a model small-market franchise. The White Sox were notorius underachievers, then they made some good moves and won a championship. The Tigers almost set the record for the worst single-season record ever, now they're setup to contend for years. I don't even have to remind anyone of the outstanding job the Cleveland Indians have done over the last decade and a half of building a good minor league while sprinkling in a few shrewd free-agent moves. Turnarounds can happen with the right moves and we won't know if Moore has made these for a few years, but I am more optomistic now than I was during the Baird era.

So while Moore gets blasted by every baseball writer looking for a story until the Red Sox or Yankees make their next big move, the Royals are starting to resemble a team that looks deeper and more promising than in previous seasons. Don't forget, Mike Sweeney will probably be gone after 2007, so that will open up another $11 million that they can use to improve the team in 2008 and beyond. Now, if only they can find a way to replace Buddy Bell with Joe Girardi ...